There is something quite surreal about the prospect of a vote, by those who happen to reside in Scotland at the moment, on whether or not the 300-year-old Union of Great Britain should continue. Despite the opinion polls, I have a sneaky feeling that it will be a fairly clear ”˜No’ vote. Because of the emotive nationalism, my sense is that people are reluctant to tell anyone that they are planning to vote ”˜No’, and so the pollster results are skewed towards ”˜Yes.’
But whatever the result, there are going to be some serious recriminations about the way the whole process has been conducted. It is breathtaking to consider the misjudgements, incompetence and constitutional wrecking that has marked the whole process. These are the most obvious blunders:
”¢ Cameron insisting that the vote was a straight ”˜yes’ or ”˜no’, out of hubristic confidence that Scots would not dare to vote ”˜yes’, instead of including a third option.
”¢ Allowing the ”˜better together’ position to be called ”˜No.’ Not surprisingly, this looks rather negative, as does any campaign to maintain the status quo. If there had been any thought at all about this, the vote would have been cast as between ”˜yes to independence’ versus ”˜yes to union’””or, better still, ”˜yes to union’ versus ”˜no to union.’
”¢Putting that third option (the so-called ”˜devo max’) option on the table the week before the vote, which looks to everyone like a cross between a panic measure and a bribe.
ӢThe sloppy definition of who can vote, so that residents in Scotland with no long-term stake can vote, whereas those who have a long Scottish heritage but happen to have moved to England or another country cannot.
”¢The notion of making constitutional change on a mere 50% of those voting. Even a debating society has a 2/3 threshold for constitutional change””and if there is less than 100% turnout, this change could happen with a minority of the electorate voting for it, let alone a minority of all Scots.
”¢The idea that one part of the United Kingdom can vote itself independent regardless of the will of the rest of the Union. Scotland comprises 8% of the UK population””so why couldn’t other areas with 8% also decide to secede? At what percentage does the other half have a say?
Not just a question for an independent Scotland, but for the remainder of the UK. What is not being spoken about is the elephant in the room. The UK still has one of the highest levels of government borrowing in the world, and yet we still maintain a triple-A debt rating.
Why is that? It is because we have persuaded lenders:
1. that our economy is strong and better able to weather current economic conditions;
2. that we have the most business-friendly tax and regulatory provisions of any country giving access to EU markets;
3. that we have put in place austerity measures to keep debt under control and eventually to bring it down;
4. that we are a safe place to place money, invest in and do business – that we are ‘open for business’ as the government has put it; and
5. that we have an economy built upon a sound financial world center in the City of London and upon natural resources including oil.
The confidence of the world’s markets in the UK has been shaken by the Scottish independence effort, and by the lack of probity of people on both sides; a lack of concern for the international investors who have placed their confidence in the UK. What has been a healthy inflow of funds to the UK has stopped and funds have started to depart.
Notwithstanding improved performance in the economy and employment figures, we have to maintain confidence in our finances and probity given our debt levels, the sort of debt levels which have left most European economies with lower debt paying extortionate interest rates. If we lose our credit rating we will pay for it and with the level of debt that interest service cost could well sink us.
While one can see why the Scots are disillusioned with the Westminster Parliament and Government [just as we are], all this talk, belicosity and posturing could well be seen as extremely foolish if the net effect is to collapse what is in reality a financial house of cards. Everyone, Scots, English, Welsh and Irish [we have bailed out the Irish] could rue this foolish madness.
An independent Scotland will not be able to borrow at rates other than those paid by Portugal, Spain, Italy or Greece, and the likely effect of independence is that we will be doing the same.
Meanwhile our current Prime Minister is making plans for more military expeditions abroad with consequent expenditure. Whatever the result tomorrow, our constitutional arrangements have been reduced by the politicians to a shambles, and our financial viability and survival placed at risk.
Everyone has gone mad. Pray for us please.